Week 18
· 27 April – 3 May 2026· 36 articlesThursday, 30 April 2026
[10 articles]This morning's agenda is shaped by two structural themes: earnings season confirms massive AI infrastructure capex commitments (Alphabet, Amazon, Qualcomm), while the UAE's OPEC exit and stagflation fears across Europe heighten uncertainty around CNB, ECB and Fed rate outlooks. Advisors should prioritise geographic portfolio diversification discussions and the approaching 1 June property tax payment deadline.

Czech Property Tax 2026: Coefficients, Deadlines and Who Must File
- —Since 2024, Czech property tax has risen approximately 1.8x on average; the final amount depends on property type, size, the statutory rate and a combination of base and municipal coefficients.
- —The tax rate for apartments is CZK 3.50/m²; the municipal coefficient ranges from 0.5 to 5.0 and is the primary driver of inter-municipality differences — annual gaps can reach thousands of CZK.

Škoda Auto Q1 operating profit up 20.9% to €660m, driven by EV demand
- —Škoda Auto posted Q1 operating profit of €660m, up 20.9% year-on-year, with revenues rising 9.1% to €7.9bn.
- —Vehicle deliveries reached 315,000 units (+13.9% YoY); the Elroq and Enyaq EVs ranked among Europe's best-selling electric models.

Volkswagen Q1 profit drops 14% — tariffs and China demand worse than expected
- —VW's operating profit fell 14.3% YoY to €2.5bn in Q1 — well below analyst consensus of €2.9bn.
- —Revenue declined 2.5% to €75.7bn, also missing market estimates of €77.6bn.
Erste Bank Q1 2026: Higher profit driven by Poland, core revenues slightly below expectations
- —Erste Bank significantly beat market consensus on net profit in Q1 2026.
- —Full consolidation of Polish operations was the key driver, boosting group-level performance.
Komerční banka Releases Q1 2026 Financial Results
- —Komerční banka published its financial results for Q1 2026 as of March 31, 2026.
- —Results are available as PDF documents in both Czech and English via the bank's investor relations section.
Analyst comment: KB Q1 2026 slightly beat estimates, but core revenues remain under pressure
- —Komerční banka marginally beat Q1 2026 market profit estimates, yet analyst Jindřich Litner notes the results did not materially strengthen the bank's investment case.
- —Core revenues remain under pressure despite the headline beat — underlying earnings quality is weaker than the top-line figure suggests.

Czech Property Tax 2026: Deadlines, Calculation and Exemptions
- —The property tax return deadline was 2 February 2026 (shifted from 31 January); payment is due by 1 June 2026.
- —Only those who acquired property in 2025 (purchase, inheritance, gift) or made structural/land changes are required to file a new return.
Česká spořitelna Q1 2026: Net Profit CZK 7.1bn, Loan Portfolio Up 9%
- —Q1 2026 net profit reached CZK 7.1bn (unaudited, IFRS), with operating profit at CZK 8.8bn — continuing a strong multi-period performance trend.
- —Loan portfolio expanded 9% year-on-year: mortgage loans +11%, corporate loans +10%, consumer loans crossed the CZK 100bn threshold.

Czech real estate investment shifts: residential rentals and hotels lead Q1 2026
- —Q1 2026 data confirm a structural shift in Czech real estate investment toward residential rental and hotel properties.
- —These two segments together accounted for more than half of total real estate investment volume in the Czech market.

Česká spořitelna Q1 2025: net profit exceeds CZK 7bn, up 23% year-on-year
- —Net profit reached CZK 7.1bn (+23.4% YoY); operating profit rose to CZK 8.8bn (+12.8%).
- —Net interest income grew 5.8% to CZK 10.7bn; net interest margin settled at 2.11%.
Wednesday, 29 April 2026
[17 articles]
After-hours earnings movers: Alphabet +7%, Qualcomm +13%, Meta -6% — full post-bell roundup
- —Alphabet surged ~7% after beating revenue estimates ($109.9B vs. $107.2B expected) and delivering a major Google Cloud upside (+63% YoY to $20B); 2026 capex raised to up to $190B.
- —Qualcomm jumped 13% as CEO announced data center chip shipments to a large hyperscaler within the calendar year; Q2 adjusted EPS of $2.65 beat the $2.56 consensus.

Powell to remain on Fed Board of Governors after chairmanship ends May 15
- —Jerome Powell confirmed he will remain as a Fed governor for an indefinite period after his chairmanship ends May 15, pending a transparent and final resolution of the central bank headquarters renovation probe.
- —Powell's continued presence temporarily denies President Trump a majority on the seven-member Board of Governors — Trump's confirmed appointees are currently Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman.

UAE exits OPEC: biggest blow to the cartel in decades, outlook for cheaper and more volatile oil
- —The UAE announced its exit from OPEC effective May 1, 2026 — the largest blow to the cartel in its history; the UAE is the third-largest producer with a 13% share of production capacity.
- —Current UAE output stands at approximately 1.9 mb/d, with total capacity at 4.3 mb/d and a target of 5 mb/d by 2027 — signaling a significant supply increase ahead.

ECB and Bank of England in wait-and-see mode: rates likely on hold despite stagflation fears
- —Both the ECB and Bank of England are widely expected to hold rates at Thursday's meetings — ECB at 2%, BoE at 3.75% — despite euro zone inflation at 2.5% and UK inflation at 3.3%.
- —The Iran conflict has triggered stagflation concerns: both economies are experiencing slowing growth alongside energy-driven inflation.

AI reshapes Asia's investment map: chips, memory and infrastructure as the new opportunity
- —Taiwan posted record export orders of USD 91.12bn in March (+65.9% YoY), the fastest growth in 16 years, driven by AI hardware demand.
- —Asia's AI supply chain spans Taiwan (chip fabrication), South Korea (HBM/DRAM memory), Japan (equipment and materials), China (self-sufficient ecosystem) and Singapore (data centres).

Powell confirms staying on as Fed governor after DOJ probe dropped
- —Jerome Powell confirmed he will remain on the Fed Board of Governors after his chairmanship ends, dismissing speculation about an early exit.
- —The Department of Justice dropped its criminal probe into Powell, allowing him to fulfill his earlier pledge to stay until the investigation concluded.
Gold and silver slide ahead of Fed meeting – Strait of Hormuz tensions and inflation fears weigh
- —Gold June futures opened at $4,585 per troy ounce on Wednesday – the lowest level in a week and the largest weekly decline since late March.
- —Silver May futures slipped 0.3% to $73.35 – the lowest in several weeks, though silver remains up over 120% year-over-year.

CNB likely to hold rates in May; UAE exits OPEC and plans to boost output
- —CNB board member Jakub Seidler signalled a vote for unchanged rates in May; a hike would become more likely the longer the Persian Gulf conflict persists.
- —The CNB intends to look through direct inflation effects of the conflict (energy, fuel); key risks are secondary effects via corporate margin expansion and delayed pass-through due to price fixations.

SoFi shares plunge 15% after unchanged guidance — CEO Noto blames macro, not fundamentals
- —SoFi shares fell over 15% after management declined to raise full-year guidance despite in-line results (EPS $0.12, net revenue $1.09B).
- —CEO Anthony Noto attributed the cautious stance to revised macro assumptions: original guidance assumed at least two Fed rate cuts, now zero cuts are expected.

J&T launches Arch II fund targeting private equity in Czech and Slovak companies
- —J&T Group is launching J&T Arch II, a qualified investor fund focused on private equity in non-listed Czech and Slovak companies.
- —The subscription period runs until July 1st; the fund is available via J&T Banka and ATLANTIK finanční trhy in CZK (min. CZK 1M) or EUR share classes (min. EUR 125,000).

Residential rental and hotels lead Czech real estate: €450M+ invested in Q1 2026
- —Total Czech real estate investment volume exceeded €450M in Q1 2026, with residential rental (31%) and hotels (26%) jointly surpassing the office segment (23%) for the first time.
- —Domestic capital dominated — Czech investors accounted for 77% of all transactions in the period.

Pershing Square goes public: $5B IPO prices at low end, PSUS shares drop 18% on debut
- —Pershing Square Capital Management debuted on the NYSE via a dual structure: closed-end fund PSUS and asset manager PS — total IPO proceeds reached $5B, the low end of the $5–10B target range.
- —PSUS closed its first trading day at $40.90, down 18% from the $50 IPO price; PS ended at $24.20.

Bitcoin and Ethereum down week-over-week but bounce in early trading as markets await Fed decision
- —Bitcoin opened Wednesday at $76,340, down 1.3% day-over-day, but rebounded to $77,508 in early trading; Ethereum opened at $2,289 (-0.6%) and climbed to $2,330.
- —Weekly opening prices for both assets have been trending lower, yet both have held key support levels above $77,000 (BTC) and $2,300 (ETH) for approximately the past week.

CNB at discussion forum: equity share of reserves to reach 30%, real rates remain positive
- —Vice-Governor Jan Frait confirmed that the CNB is not under pressure to raise rates immediately despite geopolitical fuel-price pressures — positive real rates provide sufficient buffer.
- —The CNB is gradually increasing the equity share of its FX reserves from 20% (at the start of the current board's term) to 30% by 2029; investments are exclusively passive via equity indices, covering approximately 1,400 companies.
Best US money market account rates today reach up to 4.01% APY
- —The US national average money market account rate stands at just 0.57% (FDIC), while top offers reach 3.85–4.01% APY.
- —TotalBank leads with 4.01% APY (min. $2,500 balance); Brilliant Bank offers 4% APY (min. $1,000).
HELOC and Home Equity Loan Rates in the US: Current Averages as of April 29, 2026
- —The US national average adjustable HELOC rate stands at 7.24%, while the average fixed home equity loan rate is 7.37% (source: Curinos, April 28, 2026).
- —Second mortgage rates are benchmarked to the prime rate (currently 6.75%) plus a lender margin, unlike primary mortgages which track the 10-year Treasury.
US Mortgage Rates: 30-year fixed at 6.12%, refinance rates slightly higher
- —The average US 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell 1 bp to 6.12%, down 17 bps since the start of April.
- —The 20-year fixed stands at 5.97% and the 15-year at 5.60%, with shorter terms offering meaningfully lower rates.
Tuesday, 28 April 2026
[06 articles]
Air Bank streamlines pension transfer via app and offers CZK 1,000 bonus
- —Air Bank launched a fully digital pension transfer process within its My Air app, enabling clients to move from legacy transformed funds to supplementary pension savings (DPS) at NN Pension Company.
- —Clients completing the transfer and opening a DPS account at NN between April and June 2025 with a minimum first contribution of CZK 500 receive a one-time CZK 1,000 bonus.

ECB Consumer Survey March 2026: Inflation expectations jump sharply, economic outlook deteriorates
- —Median 12-month inflation expectations jumped from 2.5% in February to 4.0% in March — the largest single-month increase since 2023.
- —Eurozone economic growth outlook fell to -2.1% (from -0.9% in February), with expected unemployment rising to 11.3%.

ECB Bank Lending Survey: Euro area banks tighten credit standards as loan demand falls
- —Euro area banks tightened credit standards across all loan categories in Q1 2026 — net 10% for corporate loans, 15% for consumer credit, and a modest 2% for housing loans; the corporate tightening exceeded prior expectations and was the sharpest since Q3 2023.
- —Key drivers of tightening include heightened perceived economic risk, reduced bank risk tolerance, and geopolitical tensions; some banks cited additional pressure from exposures to energy-intensive firms and the Middle East.

ČSSZ ePortal updated: Unified Monthly Employer Report expected to run without technical errors
- —ČSSZ carried out technical updates to its ePortal targeting error elimination in the REGZEC and JMH online services.
- —A key fix enables employers to retrospectively report employees whose employment ended during Q1 2026 — previously blocked by a technical barrier.

Why investors overpay for attractive apartments and ignore the numbers
- —Real estate investors systematically confuse personal living preferences with investment logic — designer renovations and luxury finishes do not necessarily correlate with returns.
- —The rental market rewards functionality, transport accessibility and low operating costs; a strong micro-location with an average unit can outperform an attractive apartment in a weaker area.

Maxima Insurance launches MaxEfekt 7.0: repeated payouts for serious illnesses and broader disability coverage
- —The new MaxEfekt 7.0 life insurance version allows repeated payouts for critical illnesses — up to three times without policy termination after the first claim.
- —Progressive scaling of permanent injury payouts now begins at 15% severity; the maximum tenfold payout applies above the 95% threshold.
Monday, 27 April 2026
[03 articles]
ECB SAFE Q1 2026: Euro area firms face tighter loan conditions and rising inflation expectations
- —The net share of firms reporting higher bank loan interest rates jumped to 26% (from 12% in the prior quarter), with other financing costs rising for a net 37% of firms.
- —Demand for bank loans remained stable (net 0%), while availability deteriorated marginally (net -3%); the financing gap narrowed slightly to 2% from 3%.

Rents continue rising in Q1 2026 — Brno and Ostrava lead with double-digit YoY growth
- —Rents across major Czech cities continued their upward trajectory in Q1 2026, with Brno and Ostrava posting the strongest momentum — select unit types up 10–24% YoY.
- —Prague remains the price benchmark: studio flats (1+kk) up 11% to CZK 544/m², two-room units (2+kk) up 5% to CZK 434/m², three-room units (3+kk) up 4% to CZK 388/m².

Hradec Králové Region: apartment prices up 270% over 10 years, market accelerating sharply
- —Apartment prices in the Hradec Králové Region reached CZK 81,528/m² in March 2026, representing a 10-year increase of 270% and a year-on-year gain of 9.2%.
- —The detached house segment showed even stronger annual momentum: CZK 44,036/m² (+13.8% YoY), with time-on-market cut by more than half to 95 days.
Week 17
· 20–26 April 2026· 07 articlesFriday, 24 April 2026
[02 articles]
Powell at a crossroads: will he stay at the Fed after criminal probe referral?
- —The U.S. Justice Department referred the Fed headquarters renovation probe to the central bank's inspector general, effectively stepping back — Powell had previously vowed to stay until the criminal investigation was resolved.
- —Powell now faces a binary choice: depart on May 15 when his chair term expires, or remain as a Board of Governors member through January 2028 to safeguard institutional independence.

ECB signs agreements with European standard setters to facilitate digital euro payments
- —The ECB has signed agreements with three European standardisation bodies (ECPC, nexo standards, Berlin Group) to reuse open technical standards for processing digital euro online payments.
- —Standards cover NFC contactless payments (CPACE), merchant-to-PSP back-end connectivity (nexo), and alias-based/mobile payments including POS integration (Berlin Group).
Thursday, 23 April 2026
[01 articles]Today's dominant theme is the geopolitical premium from the closed Strait of Hormuz, pushing Brent above $100/barrel and feeding through into inflation expectations, earnings season dynamics, and monetary policy on both sides of the Atlantic. CNB rhetoric has shifted toward a possible rate hike, while uncertainty surrounding Warsh's Fed chair nomination adds volatility to global fixed-income markets.
Wednesday, 22 April 2026
[03 articles]Today's agenda is dominated by the Strait of Hormuz geopolitical escalation — nearly two months of closure has produced the largest energy supply shock in modern history, with WTI crude above $89 and the IMF warning of an inevitable global growth slowdown, while stagflation risk weighs on both fixed-income and equity allocations across all sectors. Simultaneously, the politicisation of the Fed chair nomination and uncertainty around central bank independence are extending volatility across U.S. and global markets.

Markets shrug at Iran ceasefire extension — Hormuz blockade persists, oil above $90
- —Trump extended the Iran ceasefire, reducing immediate risk of resumed strikes — markets reacted with indifference as global equities reclaimed pre-war levels.
- —Brent crude trades around $99.81/barrel, WTI around $90.86; the Strait of Hormuz blockade remains in place, continuing to constrain global oil supply.

Warsh wants to overhaul Fed's inflation measurement — Bank of America warns of unintended consequences
- —Trump's Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh advocates replacing core PCE with a trimmed-mean inflation gauge that strips out extreme price readings from both tails of the distribution.
- —Bank of America estimates the trimmed method would have shown inflation at 2.3% (mean) to 2.8% (median) as of February, versus 3% for core PCE — giving Warsh room to argue for easier policy.

Elderson (ECB): Climate risks are part of banking supervision, not politics — interview on ESG, Basel IV and shadow banking
- —ECB Executive Board member Elderson defends integrating climate risks into banking supervision as a legal obligation, not a political choice — climate factors directly affect price stability (2022 Rhine drought added 0.7 pp to food inflation).
- —Of the 112 banks directly supervised by the ECB, all but two had adequately mapped climate and nature risks by end-2024 — a major improvement from 2019, when only 25% had begun to address this seriously.

